🟠 FPI: 61 / 100 — Elevated • ▲ +1

🟢 Data Confidence: 96% — High

⛽ U.S. Avg. Diesel: $6.285/gal • 🔴 ▲ +$0.318 WoW • 🔴 ▲ +$0.686 over two weeks

⛽ Common weekly FSC: $0.90/mi • 🔴 ▲ +$0.06 WoW

🔴 CRUDE WATCH — Monday, September 14 close

Method: diesel; DAT linehaul; 7.0 MPG; tractor fuel only. Reefer-unit fuel excluded.

⛽ At 7.0 MPG, that increased tractor fuel cost by:

🔴 ▲ 9¢ per mile
🔴 ▲ $90 per 1,000 miles

Here is what linehaul did during the same period:

🟢 ▲ Reefer: +8.00¢ per mile
🔴 ▼ Dry Van: −1.00¢ per mile
🔴 ▼ Flatbed: −8.00¢ per mile

After accounting for the increase in tractor fuel cost, the movement becomes:

🔴 ▼ Reefer: −1.04¢ per mile
🔴 ▼ Dry Van: −10.04¢ per mile
🔴 ▼ Flatbed: −17.04¢ per mile

That does not mean every load lost money. It means linehaul improvement failed to cover the additional tractor fuel cost across all three equipment types.

In plain English: Reefer barely held its three-week ground. Dry Van and Flatbed did not. And the newest pump increase has not even had a fair fight with the next rate report yet.

The trend arrows below belong to linehaul—not to fuel recovery.

$3.61 normalized All-In • $2.71 Linehaul • 🔴 ▼ $0.02 reported Linehaul WoW • LTR 19.00

Reefer remains the highest-paid national linehaul mode, but both rate and LTR cooled from the prior week. It still has selective value; it just lost the clean national momentum it carried into last Monday.

Before paying deadhead into a warmer market, protect the appointment, the temperature-sensitive dwell risk and the reload. Reefer fuel math is also slightly worse in real life because this model excludes reefer-unit fuel.

$3.10 normalized All-In • $2.20 Linehaul • 🔴 ▼ $0.01 Linehaul WoW • LTR 10.95

Dry Van softened by a penny nationally and the LTR eased. That fits the operating split: parts of the Midwest improved, but the Southeast remained very slow.

A small national move can hide a useful local lane. It can also hide a long empty ride home. Make the destination earn its place in the rate.

$3.52 normalized All-In • $2.62 Linehaul • 🔴 ▼ $0.05 reported Linehaul WoW • LTR 38.47

Flatbed produced the week’s clearest contradiction: its LTR rose, but national linehaul fell.

That is capacity pressure without clean rate conversion. Use the tighter ratio to test counteroffers, securement time, unload risk and appointment flexibility. Do not spend the leverage before the buyer does.

🟡 Overall EPPI: 44 / 100 — Moderate • → 0

🟡 Dry Van 42 • 🟡 Reefer 51 • 🟡 Flatbed 51

EPPI is stable, not asleep.

Fresh mode-by-mode evidence still points to moderate forward pricing pressure. Reefer and Flatbed sit at the upper end of that band; Dry Van remains softer. The maps are broader than the achieved-pricing evidence, so the system retains its one-point confirmation adjustment.

For carriers, this is a “prove it lane by lane” environment. Faster callbacks, improving counteroffers, useful pickup flexibility, stronger detention terms and better reload money are meaningful. Phone enthusiasm without economic movement is just cardio.

What changed: EIA diesel rose to $6.285 per gallon, up $0.318 WoW. The common weekly FSC increased to $0.90 per mile.

Why it matters: At 7.0 MPG, the new diesel print adds 4.54 cents per mile—or $45.43 per 1,000 miles—before deadhead, dwell or reefer-unit fuel.

Operational read: Plan fuel stops before dispatch, use route-level pricing and discounts, and keep FSC recovery separate from linehaul performance.

What changed: Reefer is $2.71, Dry Van $2.20 and Flatbed $2.62 per mile, all lower in the fresh weekly package.

Why it matters: Higher normalized All-In totals are being supported by the larger common FSC. That is fuel recovery, not evidence of a national carrier-rate rally.

Operational read: Negotiate from the linehaul number first. Then test whether the total still works after the destination, reload and full operating cost are counted.

What changed: The latest governed weather review highlighted heavy-rain risk around northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. The Atlantic outlook remained quiet in the near term, while Oregon wildfire relief rules remain active for qualifying direct-assistance moves.

Why it matters: A localized disruption can ruin an appointment or reload without moving the national market.

Operational read: Reconfirm central-corridor routes and receiver hours. Treat emergency relief as a compliance rule, not a creative writing exercise for ordinary freight.

The September 15 map package passed the full 369-row gate: 123 markets for each equipment mode, no duplicate market-mode keys and no blank classifications.

The practical read is narrower than the national picture. The Midwest improved roughly one notch. The Southeast remained very slow.

Fresh achieved-pricing evidence—20 Dry Van observations and 11 Reefer observations—supports that split directionally. It does not justify painting every market in either region with the same brush, and it does not create a national rate breakout.

This is where dispatch earns its coffee.

Use the Midwest improvement to test cleaner counteroffers and better appointment terms. In the Southeast, price the reload and deadhead before the outbound number creates false confidence. For Flatbed, the high LTR deserves a negotiation attempt, but the falling national linehaul says the buyer still needs to prove the conversion.