🟡 FPI: 59 / 100 — Elevated | ▼ −4

🟢 Data Confidence: 97% — High

⛽ U.S. Avg. Diesel: $5.599/gal | ▼ −$0.053 week over week | ▲ +$0.145 over two weeks

National operating pressure remains elevated, but it eased into the holiday. Capacity and execution risk still matter; that does not mean every lane deserves a premium.

Diesel offered five cents of weekly relief, yet it remains higher than two weeks ago. With the governed fuel-surcharge benchmark at $0.76 per mile, a decent-looking load can still become an expensive sightseeing tour if the reload or deadhead is wrong.

$2.69 linehaul | $3.45 all-in | LTR 23.55

Reefer remains the only equipment class with a weekly national linehaul gain.

Refrigerated capacity can still tighten quickly, but today’s holiday activity does not confirm broad premium pricing. Confirm the receiver and Tuesday reload before chasing a warm market.

$2.19 linehaul | $2.95 all-in | LTR 12.01

Dry Van continues to show the widest gap between opportunity and consistency.

There are workable pockets, but lane quality matters more than the national average. A good outbound without a clean reload is still only half a plan.

$2.67 linehaul | $3.43 all-in | LTR 41.84

Flatbed has the strongest high-end map count. It remains the relatively firmer equipment signal, even though national linehaul eased.

That strength is not universal. Confirm commodity timing, securement requirements and the return market before treating a red map as a signed rate confirmation.

🟡 Overall EPPI: 36 / 100 — Low | ▼ −9 points

Recent publication trend: 38 → 45 → 36

Pricing pressure weakened into the holiday. Fresh internal evidence supports a selective market, but the sample was intentionally concentrated on weaker-priced freight and Reefer coverage was thin. That makes the direction useful without turning the sample into a national rate claim.

Plain English: trucks may be harder to find in some markets, but buyers are not broadly paying enough to prove a stronger cycle.

Tuesday needs to show repeated rate improvement, meaningful counteroffers and workable reloads—not just a louder phone.

What changed: Normal Monday freight activity is interrupted by the holiday.

Why it matters: Thin boards, reduced staffing and limited receiving hours can make both capacity and demand look more dramatic than they are.

Operational read: Verify facilities directly. Today’s callback speed matters less than whether the pickup, delivery and Tuesday reload actually work.

What changed: The latest governed U.S. diesel average fell $0.053 for the week.

Why it matters: Diesel is still $0.145 higher over two weeks, so the recent decline has not restored the margin already lost.

Operational read: Use $0.76 per mile as the current governed fuel-surcharge benchmark and price the full cycle, including deadhead and reload risk.

What changed: Fresh September 7 maps shifted materially across all three equipment classes, while near-term pricing pressure moved lower.

Why it matters: A holiday map captures available capacity conditions, but not a normal day of buyer behavior.

Operational read: Treat Tuesday’s repeated callbacks, counteroffers and booked-rate movement as the real test.

The map and the money are telling different parts of the story.

Fresh maps changed broadly and still contain firm or tight pockets. EPPI, however, fell to 36 because current paid-rate conversion is weaker and less consistent. The discrepancy is not a data failure. It is the market’s main operating warning.

Map color tells you where the negotiating conversation may improve. It does not tell you whether the rate covers fuel, deadhead, holiday time and the next reload.

Watch observable behavior: quicker callbacks, repeated reposting, meaningful counteroffer movement, flexible appointments and workable receiver hours. If urgency increases without better economics, the market is louder—not better.