FPI: 55 — Elevated / Falling (-3)
Data Confidence: 82% — High
Diesel: $5.454/gal, +$0.197 WoW

The FPI falling to 55 doesn’t mean the market suddenly became easy. It means the combination of freight demand, achievable pricing, capacity pressure, cost and disruption softened from the previous read.

And there’s one important wrinkle: fuel went the other direction.

That creates an uncomfortable operating setup. Your cost floor moved higher while the freight market’s willingness to pay remains selective.

The smartest move today isn’t simply finding freight. It’s finding freight that still makes sense after the deadhead, reload and fuel bill are included.

A $2.50 load can still turn into a $2.10 decision pretty quickly once the truck starts wandering around looking for its next friend.

$2.65/mi, down 0.2% WoW
EPPI: 53 — Moderate

Reefer barely moved nationally, which fits what we’re seeing operationally: there is freight, and there are stronger pockets, but carriers shouldn’t assume every tight-looking market automatically supports a premium.

The Northeast looks busier and certain lanes can still work well. But our live pricing evidence isn’t broad enough to call Reefer a nationwide strengthening story.

Carrier read: chase the lane, not the color on the map. If the destination leaves you staring at a weak reload board tomorrow morning, today’s premium may not be much of a premium.

$2.28/mi, down 1.3% WoW
EPPI: 37 — Low

Dry Van continues to show the clearest disagreement between capacity maps and actual pricing behavior.

Some outbound markets look firm or tight on paper, yet achievable pricing remains weak. The Midwest is still producing freight, but rates have dropped even as fuel moved higher.

That matters because it tells us truck availability alone isn’t creating enough urgency on the buying side.

Operator read: be careful paying deadhead to enter a “hot” Van market unless you already know what the load pays. A red map doesn’t sign the rate confirmation.

$2.79/mi, down 2.4% WoW
EPPI: 62 — Elevated

Flatbed’s national rate pulled back, but it still carries the strongest forward pricing signal of the three modes.

That doesn’t mean every Flatbed lane is strong. It means carriers have a better chance of finding legitimate pricing leverage where equipment is actually constrained and buyers need the truck.

Operator read: Flatbed stays near the top of the opportunity board, but verify buyer urgency before repositioning. Strong freight is useful. Strong-looking freight 200 empty miles away is a different math problem.

Overall EPPI: 47 — Moderate / Stable

Flatbed: 62 — Elevated
Reefer: 53 — Moderate
Dry Van: 37 — Low

EPPI is essentially telling us there is no broad pricing breakout underway.

Flatbed has the strongest setup. Reefer has selective leverage. Dry Van is having the hardest time converting visible capacity conditions into stronger rates.

That split is important.

A national average can make freight look like one market. Dispatchers know better. Three trailers can leave the same city today and have three completely different negotiating experiences.

Higher fuel may make carriers ask for more money, but asking and getting are two different sports.

Until buyers begin consistently absorbing those higher operating costs, rising diesel alone won’t create stronger freight pricing.

Watch for:

Diesel reached $5.454/gal, up 19.7 cents week over week.

That increase matters most on freight with heavy deadhead, weak reloads, shorter loaded miles or poor fuel-surcharge recovery.

Operational read: rerun the truck math. A lane that worked last week may not work at the same rate this week.

Fuel doesn’t care that the rate confirmation was already printed.

Week 33 national spot rates moved lower:

Dry Van: -1.3%
Reefer: -0.2%
Flatbed: -2.4%

That reinforces today’s central theme: freight conditions may still look tight in places, but buyers aren’t broadly paying more for that tightness.

Operational read: use capacity data to locate opportunity, but let real quotes determine whether that opportunity is actually worth moving a truck.

Tyson’s restructuring around facilities in Illinois, Utah and Washington could shift some beef-related freight toward remaining processing points.

This should not be read as “more Reefer freight everywhere.” The more useful question is where existing volume gets redistributed.

Operational read: watch Illinois/Quad Cities, Utah and Pacific Northwest food lanes for changes in inbound and outbound balance. Network changes usually move freight before they create freight.

The most useful signal today is the disagreement between what the market looks like and what it pays like.

The maps still show plenty of firm and tight capacity. Yet live pricing, particularly in Dry Van, remains softer than those colors would normally suggest.

That’s not bad data. That is the data.

It means carriers shouldn’t confuse limited truck availability with automatic pricing leverage.

Regional behavior adds another layer:

Southeast: still slow.
Northeast: busier.
Midwest: freight remains workable, but rates have softened.
Fuel: sharply higher nationally.

So the market is still moving. It just isn’t rewarding every move equally.

The market is currently paying more for good decisions than for enthusiasm.